In a dramatic political shift, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has officially declared his candidacy for a second termin Guinea-Bissau’s upcoming November 30, 2025, presidential election. This announcement comes despite previous indications that he would not seek re-election, reigniting political tensions in an already volatile landscape.
A Controversial U-Turn
In September 2024, Embaló made headlines when he stated he would not seek a second term, citing personal reasons. However, upon returning from diplomatic visits to Russia, Azerbaijan, and Hungary, he changed his stance, telling the nation: “I will be a candidate for my own succession.”
His decision comes amid escalating political disputes over the length of his term, with the opposition arguing that his presidency should have ended on February 27, 2025, while the Supreme Court has ruled that it runs until September 4, 2025.
The Fallout of the 2023 Parliamentary Dissolution
Guinea-Bissau has been embroiled in political instability since December 2023, when Embaló dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament following allegations of an attempted coup. This move was met with international condemnation and further deepened the country’s divisions.
The opposition, led by Domingos Simões Pereira and the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), has since refused to recognize Embaló’s authority and threatened mass protests and strikes ahead of the elections.
ECOWAS and International Mediation in Peril
With rising tensions, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) attempted to mediate the crisis by sending a delegation to Guinea-Bissau. However, mediation efforts collapsed after Embaló allegedly threatened to expel ECOWAS mediators, signaling a hardline approach to the ongoing dispute.
The Bigger Picture: A Democracy in Crisis?
Guinea-Bissau has long struggled with political instability, military coups, and contested elections. Embaló’s second-term bid raises crucial questions:
- Will the upcoming elections be free and fair, or will they be marred by political violence?
- Can the opposition unite to challenge Embaló effectively, or will internal divisions weaken their chances?
- Will ECOWAS and international partners push for stronger democratic safeguards, or will Guinea-Bissau descend into deeper crisis?
Final Thought: A Test for Guinea-Bissau’s Democracy
As the country prepares for elections, all eyes are on Guinea-Bissau to see whether it can navigate its political challenges peacefully and democratically. Embaló’s reversal on seeking a second term, combined with ongoing power struggles and opposition resistance, sets the stage for a highly contested and potentially volatile election season.
Will Guinea-Bissau prove its commitment to democratic governance, or are more political upheavals on the horizon? The answer will define the country’s future for years to come.
